江西省冬季气温异常与区域海温的关联

Relationship between Winter Air Temperature in Jiangxi and Regional Sea Surface Temperature

利用1960—2010年江西省81个台站月平均气温观测资料和NOAA全球月平均海表温度资料(ERSST-V3),分析了江西省冬季气温异常与海温异常的相互联系,并运用超前-滞后相关分析和奇异值分解(SVD)方法初步探讨了关键区海温异常之间的相互作用。结果表明:①影响江西省冬季气温异常的海温关键区和关键时段分别为同期印度洋(10°S～20°N,54°～90°E)、同期西北太平洋(20°～40°N,120°～180°E)和前期8—9月北大西洋中部(24°～44°N,20°～60°W)海域;②西北太平洋关键区暖水年预示暖冬年好于印度洋区,而印度洋区冷水年预示冷冬年稍好于西北太平洋区,冬季西北太平洋与印度洋海温异常可以修正前期8—9月北大西洋中部海温异常对江西省冬季气温的影响。

Using the monthly temperature from 81 stations of Jiangxi and the sea surface temperature （SST） data from NOAA, the possible relation between winter （DJF） temperature anomalies in Jiangxi and Global SSTA is analyzed. The coupling relationship between the anomalous distribution in winter air temperature and the variations of SST is studied with the Singular Value Decomposition （SVD） analysis method. The interaction between key areas is also discussed with the lead-lag correlation analysis and SVD methods. The main results are as follows： （1） The winter air the temperature anomaly of Jiangxi had obviously identical distribution with concurrent SSTs over the Indian Ocean （10°S to 20°N, 54° to 90°E） and Northwest Pacific Ocean key area （20° to 40°N, 120° to 180°E）, and the preceding August to September SSTs over the North Atlantic Ocean key area （24° to 44°N, 20° to 60°W） ; （2） The correlation between the warmer seawater and warmer winter in Jiangxi was better over the Northwest Pacific Ocean key area than that over the Indian Ocean, and the correlation between cooler seawater and cooler winter in Jiangxi was better over the Pacific Ocean than that over the Northwest Pacific Ocean. The SSTAs over the Indian Ocean and Northwest Pacific Ocean key areas can be used to correct the influence of the North Atlantic Ocean SSTA in winter air temperature prediction in Jiangxi.