B2气候情景下2011—2050年辽宁农业气候资源演变特征

Evolvement character of agricultural climate resources in Liaoning province from 2011 to 2050 based on B2 climate change scenarios

利用区域气候模式PRECIS输出资料,基于时间序列分析及空间分析方法,对2011—2050年B2气候情景辽宁省农业气候资源时空演变特征进行预测。结果表明:辽宁辐射资源增多趋势不显著,但在2031—2040年达到峰值;生长季降水呈减少趋势,与辐射资源变化呈相反位相,减幅从西向东依次增大,辽东大部地区减幅为20 mm.(10 a)-1或以上。不同年代降水多寡对洪涝和干旱事件的发生具有指示意义。大于等于10℃积温呈极显著增多趋势,大部地区增幅为100(℃.d).(10 a)-1以上。辽西东部和辽北西部地区初霜日延后1—3 d,辽宁北部和辽东部分地区终霜日提前1—2 d。初霜日的延后和终霜日的提前使得无霜期延长,说明辽宁地区未来40 a热量资源明显增多,可为应对气候变化和调整农业种植结构提供参考。

Based on the output data of the regional climate model PRECIS, the temporal and spatial evolvement characteristics of agricultural climate resources considering future climate change scenarios of B2 （2011-2050）in Liaoning province were investigated by the methods of a time series analysis and a spatial analysis. The results in- dicate that the increasing trend of radiation resources is not significant, but has a peak value from 2031 to 2040. Precipitation is in a decreasing trend during the growing season, and the changes of radiation resource and precipi- tation are contrary. The decreasing amplitude of precipitation increases from the west to the east, and reaches 20 mm/decade in the east of Liaoning province. Precipitation is indicative to flood and drought events in the different periods. The accumulated temperature（ ≥ 10 ℃ ） is in an obvious increasing trend, and its increasing amplitude is 100℃.d/decade in most of Liaoning province. The beginning date of frost is delayed 1-3 days in the east of west- ern Liaoning province and the west of northern Liaoning province, while the ending date of frost is advanced in a- bout 1-2 days in the north and the east of Liaoning province. The changes of the beginning and ending dates make frost-free season are prolonged, and it suggests that the thermal resource will increase obviously in future 40 years, which will provide the references for the adjustment of agricultural planting structure in order to respond to climatechange.