用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型对新疆卫生人力资源的研究

A Study of the health manpower resources in Xinjiang by using grey systems GM(1,1) models

研究新疆卫生人力资源的配置参考。方法：利用灰色系统ＧＭ（１，１）模型方法，对新疆１９８７～１９９６年 卫生人力资源中的医生数、护（师）士数和床位数进行拟合。结果：分别建立了３个ＧＭ（１，１）模型。医生数模型Ｙ_１（ｔ）＝ ９０．３６６４３ｅ^(０．０３４１６８)（ｔ－１）－８７．７１７５４３，拟合精度为９９．５％；护（师）士数模型Ｙ_２（ｔ）＝７３．６１７５２ｅ^(０．０２９１２)（ｔ－１），拟合精度为９８． ９９ ％；床位数模型Ｙ_３（ｔ）＝４４６．７３７７７９ｅ^(０．０１４６０)（ｔ－１）－４４０．４２５５７９，拟合精度为９８．８８％。结论：建立的３个ＧＭ（１，１）模型均为 高精度拟合（预测）模型，并给出了１９９７～２００５年我区卫生人力资源的配置参考。

Objective: To study the standards of health manpower resources distribution in Xinjiang. Methods: By using Grey Systems GM(1, 1) models, we made quasi-conjunctions on the number of doctors, senior and junior nurses and beds of health manpower resources in Xinjiang from 1987 to 1996. Results: Three GM(1, 1) models were established.The accuracy of the models on the number of doctors (Y1 (t)=90.36643e^(0.034168)(t-1)-87.717543 was 99.5% and on the number of senior and junior nurses(Y2(t)=73.61752e^(0.029124)(t-1) was 98.99% and on .the number of beds (Y3(t)=446.737779e^(0.014606)(t-1) 98.88%. Conclusions: The three GM (1,1) models established in this essay are all highly accurate quasi-conjunction models(prediction), and the standards of health manpower resources in our region from 1997 to 2005 are also provided in the essay.