中东形势演变及其前景

The Development and Prospects of the Middle East

始于2010年年底的中东大变局堪称冷战结束以来世界范围内最重要的地缘政治变动,其结果是埃及等4个国家政权以3种模式被更替,以变革求稳定成为地区主要政治潮流,伊斯兰主义力量政治地位和影响力迅速崛起,海湾合作委员会的地区主导地位明显上升。这场变局对于相关国家来说是探求符合伊斯兰文明和自身国情发展道路的一次努力,然而,要综合解决宗教力量与世俗力量、伊斯兰与现代民主、伊斯兰与非伊斯兰、民选政府与军方等多重关系,势必要经过较长时期曲折的震荡甚至冲突。

The big changes taking place in the Middle East at the end of 2010,may be the most important and world-wide geopolitical events ever since the end of the Cold War,with the result that regimes in Egypt and three other countries were replaced by three types of regime change model.Maintaining stability by means of changes has become the main political trend in the region.Political status and influence of the Islamist elements are increasing sharply and the leading position of Gulf Cooperative Council Countries is on the rise remarkably.To most countries concerned,this sudden turn of events can be seen as an attempt to search a development pattern for them that conforms to the Islamic civilization and their own national conditions.But in order to regulate multiple relations in a comprehensive way,i.e.the relations between the religious and secular sections,between Islamism and modern democracy,between Muslims and non-Muslims and between an elected government and the military,it certainly will take a rather long period of time imbued with dramatic changes,social upheavals and even major conflicts.