中国控制通货膨胀的成本与需求效应比较分析

China control inflation's cost and requirement effect comparison analysis

本文通过对影响我国通货膨胀的需求、生产成本和货币因素进行了研究,在加入预期的Philips曲线基础上,构建变参数模型和影响通货膨胀的主要因素模型,着重对控制通胀的成本与需求效应进行比较分析。得到如下结论:产出缺口对通货膨胀的影响呈现明显的下降趋势,即需求变动对通货膨胀的影响逐渐减小;成本因素是推动通货膨胀的最主要的原因,比需求影响程度更大,且通货膨胀对生产成本的反应时滞非常短,几乎表现为同期波动;紧缩的货币政策对通货膨胀的控制效应被生产成本的上升所抵消。

This paper analyses the effects of demand factors,production cost factors and monetary on China＇s inflation.On the basis of Philips curve,we join the expected inflation in it,and build varying parameter model and main factors affected inflation model,especially study on comparing the cost Effect and demand Effect of controlling Inflation.Then get the conclusions： The impact of the output gap on inflation presents downward trend,scilicet the impact of demand on inflation gradually decreases;The cost factors is the main reason to push inflation,the influence of cost is larger than demand factors,and the reaction time delay of inflation on the production cost factors is short,almost showed the same period fluctuations;The controlling effect of tightening monetary policy on inflation was offset by production cost increasing.