基于时间序列模型的传染病分析

The Analysis of Infective Disease Based on Time Series Model

本文选取了从2005年1月到2011年9月间丙类传染病的月发病数,在考虑长期趋势与季节因素的基础上,选择ARIMA模型来对我国丙类传染病每月的爆发数量进行拟合,同时对未来1年的发病情况进行预测。

This thesis collected the number of C class infective diseases that happened from January, 2005 to September, 2011 in China. Considering the diseases＇ long term trend and seasonal characteristic, seasonal ARIMA model was chosen to fit the original data and predict the circumstance of C class infective diseases in the next one year.