摘要
利用近年来在海原断裂带各断裂段取得的最新古地震资料,通过实时概率模型,对海原断裂带东段、中段、西段进行了地震潜势的定量评估。得出海原断裂带东段、中段、西段未来100年内发生7级以上地震的概率分别为3.15%、11.35%、5.15%,未来200年内发生7级以上地震的概率分别为6.05%、22.8%、9.75%。
The Haiyuan fault is divided into three sections. The paleoearthquake data obtained in recent years in Haiyuan fault is analyzed with real-time probability model, the quantitative assessment of earthquake poten- tial is carried out for above each section. The probability of ealthquake occurrence in the Haiyuan fault, the East, Middle and West area in the next 100 years are 3.15%, 11.35%. 5.15%, in the next 200 years are 6. 05%, 22. 8%, 9.75%.
出处
《高原地震》
2012年第4期8-10,14,共4页
Plateau Earthquake Research
关键词
海原断裂带
地震潜势
实时概率模型
Haiyuan fault
Seismic potential
Real-time probability model
