公交优先对西安能源和环境的重要性

The importance of public transport priorityation to energy and environment in Xi′an

目的定量比较西安市未来发展不同的交通出行方式对能源、环境和空气的影响,旨在为城市生态环境可持续发展提供决策依据。方法利用"长期能源替代规划"模型(LEAP)对西安市未来城市客运的能源需求进行分析,并将结果与LEAP的"环境数据库"相链接,计算相应的环境排放。结果如果按照目前西安市机动车的增长速度发展下去,到2025年,西安市的客运交通能源需求将会是2005年的4.3倍,而CO,NOx,HC的排放量是2005年2.9倍、3.0倍和3.1倍,这会给西安市的生态环境带来很大压力。结论机动车增长趋势会给西安市的环境带来很大的压力,将西安市交通重心从个体交通转向公共交通,可以减轻未来西安市的环境和能源压力。实施公共交通优先对改善西安市能源状况、生态环境的良性发展具有重要的现实意义。

Aim To compare the impact of various transportation models on the energy demand and air pollutant e- missions in Xi＇an quantitatively, aiming at offering the decision basis for urban sustaninable development of ecologi- cal environment. Methods LEAP model is applied to analyze the energy demand of the urban passenger traffic in the future in Xi＇an, and chain the results to ＂environmental database＂ of LEAP, calculating the corresponding en- vironment air pollutant emissions. Results If in accordance with the current of motor vehicles growth in Xi＇an, in 2025, energy demand of transport will be 4.3 times than in 2005. But, the emissions of Co, NOx, HC will be 2.9 times, 3.0 times and 3.1 times than in 2005. There will bring big pressue of Xi＇an in the future. Conclusion It is significant to implement the public transport ation priority, which will benefit the ecological environment in Xi＇ an.