服务外包对中国产业结构升级的影响——基于“中介效应”的实证检验

Effects of Service Outsourcing on Upgrading China's Industrial Structure——an Empirical Research Based on Mediating Effect

我国目前正面临着巨大的产业结构升级压力,发展服务外包是促进产业结构升级的有效途径。基于服务外包对产业结构升级影响的理论传导机制,引入资本积累、人力资本和技术进步三个中介变量,运用"中介效应"检验方法对1997—2010年的数据进行实证检验,可发现我国服务外包对产业结构升级的影响途径和程度。研究结果表明三者确实具有显著的中介效应,大小依次为资本积累效应、技术进步效应、人力资本优化效应。

At present, China is facing huge pressure of upgrading industrial structure, the development of service outsourcing is an effective way to promote the upgrading the industrial structure. In this paper, based on the theory of conduction mechanism of service outsourcing to industrial structure, introduce three mediating variables-capital accumulation, human capital and technological progress, and use the ＂intermediate effect＂ test method on the 1997--2010 to make empirical study, to explore the way and degree of the impact of China＇ s service outsourcing on upgrading industrial structure. The results show that the three mediating variables do have a significant mediation effect, its descending order is： capital accumulation effect, technological progress, human capital optimization. Finally, it proposes recommendations to promote China＇ s services outsourcing development in order to promote the upgrading of industrial structure.