大型地下厂房三种涌水量预测模型分析

Analysis on Three Prediction Models of Water Inflow in the Large Underground Powerhouse

在地下工程开挖过程中,地下涌水量对施工人员的安全及工程的安全性有较大的影响。由于地下涌水量的影响因素复杂且呈非线性关系,为了能更准确地预测涌水量,采用某大型厂房地下涌水量的原始数据,通过对地下涌水量建立灰色预测模型、回归预测模型以及时间序列预测模型,预测出地下涌水量的发展趋势,对比分析表格数据、图表特征以及预测精度,得出灰色预测模型预测效果最佳。研究表明,灰色预测模型可以在较少数据的基础上达到合理预测的目的。研究结果可对工程安全提供参考,为类似工程提供借鉴。

Water inflow has great effect on the worker personal safety and project safety during the excavation process of the underground projects.Because of the influencing factors of the water inflow are complex and show nonlinear relationship,this paper uses original data of the water inflow in some large underground powerhouse in order to predict more accurately the water inflow,by building the grey forecasting model,regression forecasting model and the time series forecasting model to predict the development trend of the water inflow,also a conclusion has been drawn that the grey forecasting model predicts the effect best according to comparative analyzing table data,chart characteristics as well as the prediction accuracy.Analysis results show that the grey forecasting model can achieve reasonable forecasting goal with less data.Results of research can provide reference for project safety and other similar projects.