我国商业保险保费收入与宏观经济关系的实证研究

商业保险作为保证经济发展与个人生活稳定不可缺少的重要组成部分发挥着巨大的作用,本文通过采用ADF检验,协整检验以及Granger因果检验等计量经济学方法,选取我国2004年1月至2011年9月的经济指标的月度数据进行实证分析,对我国商业保险保费收入情况和宏观经济指标进行实证研究,考察保险市场保费收入规模和整个宏观经济的关系,实证结果表明我国商业保险保费收入与宏观经济之间存在着密切的关系,并最后分析了原因所在。

The commercial insurance plays as an important and indispensable part in ensuring economic development and making personal life stable.This article uses ADF test,cointegration test and Granger causality test and other related methods,by choosing from January 2004 to September 2011 monthly economic indicators of china for empirical analysis to examine the relationship between the premium income of commercial insurance and the macro-economic.The results show that the premium income of commercial insurance and macroeconomic have close relationship.Then the author analyzes the impact and the reasons of the recationship.