中国寿险业发展与经济增长关系的实证研究

An Empirical Research on the Relationship between the Development of China Life Insurance Industry and the Economic Growth

利用2000Q1～2012Q1的中国寿险保费和实际GDP数据,建立VEC模型并进行Granger因果关系检验。实证结果表明:在短期,寿险保费与GDP互为因果关系;在中期,寿险业发展是经济增长的Granger原因,但经济增长对寿险业发展作用并不显著;在长期,寿险业发展与经济增长不存在格兰杰因果关系。间接说明了寿险业发展潜力巨大,面临的宏观环境有待改善。建议在加快和规范寿险市场发展的同时,加大对寿险的政策支持力度,提高寿险有效需求。

Based on the data over the period from the first quarter of 2000 to the first quarter of 2012, this article examined the relationship between the life insurance industry development and the growth of GDP with the VEC model. The results showed that the development of life insurance industry was the granger causes for the growth of GDP in short and medium term, while GDP growth impact the development of the life insurance in short term. In the end, this article suggested that the government should improve the personal disposable income, insurance awareness and favored policy to support the development of the life insurance industry.