我国农产品价格波动的影响因素分析

Analysis of Influential Factors to Domestic Agricultural Product Price Fluctuation

本文从近年来我国农产品价格波动的特点出发,从理论上剖析市场供需、成本、国际农产品价格对农产品价格波动的影响,并选取近十年数据进行实证分析。研究发现,农产品价格自身和国际农产品价格对我国农产品价格波动的贡献率大、影响显著,通货膨胀和货币供应量的贡献率比较小、成本影响较为复杂。在此基础上,本文对稳定农产品价格、规避农产品价格风险提出了具体建议。

In recent years, the prices of agricultural products have fluctuated frequently in China. This paper analyzes fac- tors which influenced China＇s agricultural product prices and select nearly a decade of data for the empirical analysis. The resuits show, agricultural prices themselves and international agricultural prices have significantly affected. The impact of inflation and the money supply is small. The cost impact is more complex. On the basis of research, put forward concrete proposals to stabilize the prices of agricultural products and to avoid the risk of agricultural products.