中国宏观经济分析与预测：2012～2013年

The Prediction and Analysis of Chinese Macro-economic: from 2012 to 2013

利用模型进行预测,2012年中国GDP增速将达到8.0%,比2011年回落1.3个百分点,2013年中国经济将重返"9时代",增速达到9.3%,CPI出现反弹,达到4.1%。在分析和预测的基础上认为,未来短期宏观经济政策应当在强化中期定位的基础上保持相对宽松与积极的导向,在正确认识中国新时期的各种结构性力量和周期性力量的变化的基础上,超越"新常态"悲观主义的定位,在收入分配、房地产等关键领域进行重点突破性改革,清除"改革疲劳症"。

With the use of the model, China＇s GDP growth rate in 2012 will reach 8%, which is 1.3 percentage points lower than in 2011. China＇s economy in 2013 will return to the ＂9 times＂, growth rate will reach at 9.3%, CPI will rebound up to 4.1%. On the basis of the analysis and prediction, the future short-term and macro-economic policy should maintain the relatively loose and positive direction on the basis of strengthening the interim orientation, overstep the pessimistic positioning of ＂new normal＂ in a correct understanding of the change of structural forces and periodic force in the new period, carry out the breakthrough reform in key areas, such as the income allocation and real estate to clear away the ＂reform fatigue＂.