资本外逃行为发凡及其引申

The Meaning of the Capital Flight Behavior and Its Extension

国内外学者对资本外逃的内涵和规模测算方法进行了系统的研究。国外学者一般从资本流出的动机和资本外逃的后果两个角度来界定资本外逃,主要的观点有投机套利说、风险规避说、管制规避说、社会契约违背说、国民效用或社会福利损失论、资产组合说、不对称风险说。国内学者则认为资本外逃是一种非正常的资本外流,但不等于资本外流,可以非法的方式也可以变相以合法的方式流出,包括短期资本(游资)和长期资本的流出,一般是超出政府控制之外的资本流出。测算资本外逃规模的直接测算法、间接测算法、混合测算法、投资权益差额调整法各有优劣,在理论上运用这些方法测算有效可行,但在实际中往往会遇到困难。将研究对象转为生产性资本外逃的测算,进而分析对一国经济的影响,是未来的研究方向之一。

Domestic and foreign scholars have made a systematic research on the connotation and size estimation method of the flight of capital. Foreign scholars generally define capital flight from the capital outflow motivation and the consequences of capital flight these two perspectives, the main opinion including the speculative arbitrage, risk aversion, control avoid, social contract violation, national utility or the loss of social welfare theory, portfolio risk, asymmetric risk. The domestic scholars argue that capital flight is a kind of abnormal capital outflow, but not equal to capital outflows, which is the capital outflow generally beyond the control of govemme,at, including outflows by illegal means and in a disguised legitimate way, short-term capital （capital） and long-term capital outflow. There are advantages and disadvantages among the measurement to calculate the capital flight scale involving the direct measuring method, the indirect measuring method, mixed measurement algorithm, investment rights and interests balance adjustment method, which are effective and feasible in theory but difficult in practice. The direction for future research is to turn the research object into the measurement of the productive capital flight and further analysis on the impact of a country＇ s economy.