东亚货币秩序的政治基础--从单一主导到共同领导

The Political Foundation of the East Asia Monetary Order:From Single Dominance to Joint Leadership

从清迈倡议的启动到东亚外汇储备库的建立,在亚洲金融危机之后的十多年时间里,东亚货币合作取得了一定的成效。但随着东亚经济进一步深度整合以及美元危机所催生的现实需要,相比于其他地区货币合作的快速推进,东亚货币秩序建设的进展总体上仍然难以令人满意。文章指出,无论是全球层面还是区域层面的货币秩序,都体现为一种国际政治安排,它有赖于国际政治领导力的发挥;东亚货币秩序的建设不是经济整合的自发产物,而是区域政治领导者积极推动的结果。因此,对东亚货币合作的解释需要国际政治经济学的介入。在此基础上,文章认为,东亚货币秩序建设的政治基础经历了从日本单一主导到中国和日本共同领导这两个发展阶段,其成效分别体现为清迈倡议的启动和东亚外汇储备库的建立;东亚货币合作政治基础的嬗变及区域政治领导力的强弱变化,既可以解释东亚货币秩序业已取得的进展,又可以解释这种进展为何难以令人满意。而未来东亚能否建立一个真正独立于美元影响的区域货币新秩序,取决于中日之间能否有效发挥共同政治领导。

From the beginning of the Chiang Mai Initiative(CMI) to the establishment of the East Asia Foreign Exchange Reserve Pool,the past ten plus years since the Asian Financial Crisis have brought a certain level of success in East Asian currency cooperation.However,as the region moves towards the next step in its economic integration and faces practical demands stemming from the U.S.dollar crisis,the overall progress of monetary order construction in East Asia remains less than what might be considered satisfactory,particularly when compared with the rapid progress in currencycooperation in other regions.This article points out that regardless of whether one considers the monetary system at the global level or the regional level,both reflect the international political order,and rely on the influence of international political leadership.The establishment of the East Asian monetary order is not an autonomous product of economic integration,but is an outcome of the efforts of political elites at the regional level.For this reason,explanations of East Asian currency cooperation must be developed through the lens of international political economy.On this basis,it is argued that the political foundation of the East Asian monetary order has passed through a phase during which Japan unilaterally guided the order to one in which China and Japan provide joint leadership.This is reflected in the start of the Chiang Mai Initiative and the establishment of the East Asian Foreign Exchange Reserve Pool.The transformation of the political foundation and the relative change in strength of political leadership can explain the progress that has already been made in East Asian currency cooperation,and further explains why this progress falls short of what is considered satisfactory.Whether or not East Asia can establish a regional monetary system that is independent of the influence of the U.S.Dollar depends on whether China and Japan can effectively assert joint political leadership.