中美经济相互依赖关系中的敏感性和脆弱性——基于“金融恐怖平衡”视角的分析

Sensitivity and Fragility of Economic Interdependence in Sino-U.S. Relations:An Analysis based on the “Balance of Financial Terror”

文章认为,中美之间的经济相互依赖主要表现为非对称的双边资本循环;中国在中美经济相互依赖关系中的敏感性和脆弱性,远远高于美国。全球金融危机通过中美之间的双边资本循环,加剧了中国对美国货币政策和金融市场的依赖,特别是强化了两国之间的"金融恐怖平衡"。文章运用结构向量自回归模型(SVAR),通过外部冲击引发的动态响应,对这一分析进行了实证检验。文章认为,美元本位制和中国自改革开放以来实行的出口导向发展战略,是导致中国在中美经济相互依赖关系中的敏感性和脆弱性远远高于美国的根本原因;目前中国不能主动打破两国之间的"金融恐怖平衡",但是中国必须通过加快经济结构调整和转变经济发展战略以及加快金融转型这两个途径,降低自身在中美经济相互依赖关系中的脆弱性。

This article argues that economic interdependence between the U.S.and China is expressed mainly through asymmetric bilateral capital circulation,and that China's level of sensitivity and fragility within the relationship of economic interdependence is much higher than that of the United States.Through bilateral capital circulation between the U.S.and China caused by the global financial crisis,China's reliance on America's monetary policy and its financial markets has increased,and in particular the 'balance of financial terror' between the two countries has strengthened.This article uses structural vector auto regression analysis to model the dynamic response triggered by such external shocks to conduct an empirical test of this argument.It is argued that the U.S.dollar standard and the export based development strategy that China has advanced since embarking on its policy of reform and opening are the root factors resulting in China having levels of sensitivity and fragility much higher than those of the United States.At present,China is not capable of overcoming the 'financial balance of terror' between the two countries,and China must decrease its fragility within the context of Sino-U.S.economic interdependence by speeding the pace of structural reforms to its economy,shifting the direction of its development strategy and speeding the pace of its financial transition.