财政赤字、利率波动与金融危机——美国金融危机再审视

Fiscal Deficit,Interest Rate Fluctuation and Financial Crisis:Rethinking American Financial Crisis

小布什执政期间由于"减税"以及军费和社保支出增加等原因导致政府赤字不断膨胀。本文从收入和支出两个方面分析小布什执政时期政府赤字膨胀的原因。在开放经济大国情况下的IS-LM模型中债务融资、货币融资、汇率融资等方式对利率波动有影响;实际利率模型实证分析的结果也表明了货币供应量、政府赤字、实际汇率和通货膨胀对实际利率的影响是显著的。在此基础上,应用Taylor规则的分析结果表明利率的不稳定变化可能引发"次债危机"。

The George . W . Bush took the pohcy of tax cuts and expended the spending on the military and social security, which caused the expansion of government deficit. We analyzed the changing trend of fi- nancial revenue and expenditure structure of the Bush administration. With the IS - LM model under the open economy condition, we analyzed the intluence the three kinds of financing put on the interest rate volatility. The empirical analysis results show that the real - exchange rate, money supply, inflation and the government deficit have a positive influence on the actual interest rate. Using Taylor rules, we get the conclusion that the interest rate fluctuations caused by fiscal deficit is one of the main reasons of financial crisis.