汇率弹性与中国行业自身调节能力差异性

Flexibility of Exchange Rate and Differentiation of Self-adjusting Ability of Chinese Industries

汇率弹性增强促进了汇率的短期双向浮动,进而冲击行业贸易收支的短期平衡,本文结合"S曲线"理论分析中国35个行业应对汇率短期冲击的自身调节能力的差异性,采用动态相关系数方法检验贸易收支与贸易条件的S曲线的存在性,进而得出不同行业对其贸易收支的自身调节能力。结果表明;虽然细分数据发现15个行业具有较好调节能力,但行业加总数据反映出我国总体行业应对汇率弹性冲击的调节能力不足。结合PTM指数分析表明;议价能力越低或国外主导的产品内分工程度越高的行业,应对汇率短期冲击的自身调节能力也越低。

This paper disaggregates both the trade balance and trade term data into 35 industries, and esti-mates the dynamic cross- correlation eoeftieients to test the evidence of S- Curve at industry level. The resuhs show that when aggregate data is considered, there is no evidence of the S-Curve, which shows the low self- adjust ability of Chinese total industry against exchange rate volatility. When the data are disag- gregated by ISIC Rev.2 industries, the S- Curve is supported in 15 industries of the 35 ones considered, but their trade amount only averagely aceoants for 18. 45% of the total trade amount during 1996- 2004. However, there are 12 industries strongly reject the evidence of S- Curve and their trade amount averagely accounts of 45.03% of the total trade amount during 1996- 2004.Furthermore, 19 industries show the HLM effect. It appears that bargaining power and vertical specialization index have great influence on the evidence of an S- Curve pattern.