嵌入保险消费的动态经济增长效应模型分析

Analysis of Dynamic Economic Growth Effects Model Embedded in Insurance Consumption

本文将保险纳入一般消费范畴,构建VAR和VEC模型以及脉冲响应函数与方差分解方法,实证检验发现其消费数量不大,但经济驱动功效和社会稳定作用机理特殊,或以企业生产消费形式进入生产领域,构成社会经济系统再生产循环的物化劳动中一小部分嵌入性投入;或以家庭个人和政府机构的服务消费形式进入消费领域,构成社会经济系统再生产循环的活劳动消耗的一小部分嵌入性消费。平均受教育程度越高,风险意识与保险意识越强的活劳动,对保险消费的贡献率越高,导致嵌入保险消费的活劳动对经济增长的贡献(1.743)大于嵌入保险消费的物化劳动对经济增长的贡献(1.222)。保险消费促进经济增长的整体效果虽然表现缓慢,但逐渐上升并持续时间较长。

With insurance being incorporated into the category of general consumption, this paper constructed models of VAR and VEC, of impulse response function and variance analysis. Empirical analysis discovers that imurance has an special effect on economic motivation and social stability, in spite of the small con- sumption. Specifically, insurance consumption enters the field of production and constitutes a small embedded input of materialized labor in reproduction circulation of socioeconomic system. Alternatively, the consumption field in terms of service consumption of households and govemment organizations, fomaing a small part of embedded consumption of human labor in reproduction circulation of socioeconomic system. Human labor with higher average education and stronger risk consciousness and insurance awareness contributes more to the insurance consumption. Consequently, human labor embedded in insurance consumption contributes more to the economic growth than materialized labor embedded in insttranee consumption does. The overall effect of insurance consumption on enhancing economic growth is increasing slowly, but gradually and continuously.