人口年龄结构如何影响经济失衡--理论与中国的经验分析

How Can Population Age Structure Affect Economic Imbalance:Theoretical and Empirical Analysis in China

从人口年龄结构视角解读了中国经济"高储蓄、高投资、高顺差"的成因。研究表明,老年人口抚育负担的上扬降低了储蓄率和外贸顺差,支持了生命周期假说。但是,少儿人口抚育负担的下降却未能抑制储蓄率和外贸顺差的上扬,我们将其归因于代际间的"利他主义"和"内生化的劳动供给",当家庭中子女数量减少时,用于未来教育、婚嫁等目标性支出随之下降,反而刺激了当期消费;在家庭子女数量增加时,父母有可能选择减少支出或者选择用劳动替代闲暇。本研究的政策涵义在于培育针对劳动适龄人口新的消费热点、延迟退休年龄、完善社会保障制度。

The paper interprets the high saving, investment and trade surplus from the viewpoint of population age structure. The decline on the burden of elderly population strikingly decreases by saving and trade surplus and tends to support the life cycle hypothesis. However, Because of intergenerational ＂altruism＂ and ＂endogenous labor supply＂, the burden of for children and the household savings have signs of some kind of ＂anti life - cycle＂, when the number of children decreases to a family, subsequently the decline of the expenditure of education and marriages, consumption enhances. The paper thinks that we should create new consumption points, Prolong retirement life and improve social security institution.