中国人身保险需求的影响因素分析——基于面板数据分位数回归的实证研究

Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Life Insurance Demand in China——An Empirical Research Based on the Regression of Fractile in Panel Data

采用中国2005-2009年的面板数据建立分位数回归模型,然后运用面板数据单位根检验和协整检验,在前人给出的影响因素中为模型选择了最优的解释变量,以确保解释变量与被解释变量之间存在相关关系,同时避免了伪回归,提高了分位数回归方程的稳定性与预测能力。研究结果表明:国内生产总值和城乡居民储蓄存款是促进中国人身保险需求的主要因素;城市化程度对人身保险需求有明显的正向影响;社会保障与商业保险之间并未产生替代关系;抚养比对人身保险需求并没有影响,表明人们对于潜在的人身保险需求并没有转换成实际需求。

Based on panel data of the period of 2005-2009 in China, the paper sets up the quantile regression model. By panel data unit root test and cointegration test, this paper selects the fittest regressor for these models through the factors, which is given by the previous. In order to ensure the existent relationship between regressor and estimator, and to avoid the false return and improv the stability as well as the prediction ability of the model. The results of the study show that, GDP and the residents’ deposits are the fundamental determinants of life insurance development; the degree of urbanization obviously has a positive influence on life insurance requirement; there is no alternative relation ship between social insurance and commercial insurance; the dependency ratio has no significant effect on life insurance needs, which shows that potential demand doesn’t change into actual needs.