基于实物期权的项目投资决策方法

A Method of Project Investment Decision Making Based on Real Options

由于受不确定性的影响,传统的项目投资决策方法已不能全面衡量一个项目的价值,实物期权方法是一种能定性和定量考察这些不确定性因素的方法。本文采用实物期权理论对项目的灵活性价值定量计算,并结合EXCEL对项目各项指标进行敏感性分析,确定对期权价值的影响较大的因素,以便于在实际应用时尤其要关注敏感性因素值的确定与变化,以帮助决策者抓住重点,做出科学的决策。

Because of the uncertainty, the traditional project investment decision method cannot comprehensively measure a project＇s value; Real Option method is a qualitative and quantitative method to check uncertainties. Based on the Real Option theory, the paper calculates to the project flexibility value, and combined with EXCEL to the project various indexes of sensitivity analysis, the paper determines the influential factors to the option value. When applied in practice, the value determination and change of these sensitivity factors should be especially attentioned, in order to help decision make scientific decision.