中国经济周期拐点预测——基于潜在经济增长率与经验判断

Forecasting the Turning Points of China's Business Cycle:——Based on the Potential Growth Rates and Empirical Judgments

为研究中国经济周期拐点预测问题,考虑体制变革、通货膨胀预期、货币政策、国际贸易与投资等因素,本文构建一个状态空间形式的多参数动态系统,应用Kalman滤波估算中国1978-2011年潜在经济增长率等变量并用VAR模型进行检验,结合对中国经济周期特征和规律的经验判断形成预测思路:当经济运行超过可接受产出缺口区间阈值时,根据扩张期长而收缩期短的新特征,判断拐点的大致位置,若此时监测到潜在经济增长率趋势变动,则可对拐点做出预测。

To forecast the turning points of China＇s business cycle, this paper builds up a muhivariate system in the state space form, based on characteristics of China＇s socialist market economy, including factors such as inflation expecta- tions, monetary policy, international trade and investment. The paper applies Kalman filtering to estimate China＇s potential growth rates and other related variables from year 1978 to 2011. Combining VAR analysis and empirical judgments, the paper suggests that the turning point should be inferred when actual output gap goes beyond the threshold of acceptable interval and the trend of potential growth rate reverses.