区域综合交通运输需求与产业结构的协整关系分析

Cointegration Relationship of Regional Integrated Transport Demand and Industrial Structure

为揭示区域综合交通运输需求与产业结构间的联系,运用协整理论,研究了客货运量与第一、二、三产业间的相互关系.结果表明:上海市综合交通客货运量分别与第二、三产业产值存在长期均衡关系;第一产业的发展不能用来解释客货运输需求的增长;传统的采用单位GDP(Gross Domestic Product)产生的货运量指标预测货运需求已不能完全适用产业发展方向;在10%置信水平下,认为货运量是第三产业产值的Granger原因,且第三产业产值是客运量的Granger原因,客运量对数关于第三产业产值对数的短期弹性为1.15,长期弹性为0.41,采用单位三产产值产生的客运量来预测客运需求是合理的;在25%置信水平下,客运量和第三产业产值互为因果关系,但客运需求对第三产业的促进作用要强于后者对前者的拉动作用,说明交通基础设施建设适度超前对引导经济发展和产业结构调整有显著作用.

In order to reveal the relationship between regional integrated transport demand and industrial structure,the cointegration theory is adopted.This theory is based on the interaction between freight and passenger traffic volume and the value of primary,secondary,and tertiary industries in Shanghai.The result proves that a long-term equilibrium relationship exists,respectively,between freight/passenger traffic volume and the value of the secondary/tertiary industry.The development of the primary industry does not account for the increase in either passenger transport demand or freight transport demand.The utilization of freight traffic volume per gross domestic product（GDP） to forecast freight transport demand is no longer entirely suitable for the industry that is developing rapidly these days.The freight traffic volume Granger causes the tertiary industry,and the tertiary industry Granger causes passenger traffic volume at a 10% confidence level.Meanwhile,the short-term elasticity of the passenger volume logarithm due to the tertiary industry logarithm is 1.15;whereas the long-term elasticity is 0.41.Thus,it is reasonable to predict passenger transport demand using passenger traffic volume per tertiary industry value.Passenger traffic volume and the tertiary industry have a bidirectional causal relationship at a 25% confidence level.However,the promotion of the tertiary industry to passenger transport demand is stronger than that of the latter to the former,meaning that the modestly leading construction of transport systems would be helpful for the economic development and the structural adjustment of the industry.