出行信息对道路网络出行时间可靠性的影响

Impact of Traveler Information on Road Network Travel Time Reliability

为考察出行信息对道路网络出行时间可靠性的改善效果,将出行者划分为'有ATIS接收装置'和'无ATIS接收装置'两类,且均以随机方式选择路径,运用混合网络随机用户均衡建模理论构建了信息诱导下的出行路径选择模型.从路段容量的实际变化规律出发,假定其服从截尾正态分布,基于Monte Carlo仿真技术和网络均衡流求解算法,建立了信息影响下的道路网络出行时间可靠性评估方法.数值分析结果表明:道路网络出行时间可靠性随出行信息质量和信息系统的市场渗透率增加而递增,但其边际影响递减;对于交通需求水平高的道路网路,信息的提供对网络出行时间可靠性的改进更加明显.

To investigate the provision of traffic information on road network travel time reliability,the travelers are divided into two classes： travelers equipped with advanced traveler information systems（ATIS） and travelers unequipped with ATIS.A route choice behavior model considering information guidance is formulated as a mathematical program based on the mixed stochastic user equilibrium modeling approach.The assumption is that two classes of travelers made their route choices in a Logit-based stochastic manner.The link capacities are treated as truncated normal random variables considering the fact that link capacity can only vary between 0 to link design capacity.With the above considerations,a travel time reliability evaluation method with degradable link capacity under influence of traveler information is proposed using the Monte Carlo simulation technique and network equilibrium flow solution algorithm.Some numerical studies on a small road network are conducted to validate the proposed method,the results show that： road network travel time reliability increases with the quality of information and/or the market penetration of ATIS,but the marginal effects of them are decreasing;for a road network with more higher traffic demand,the provision of traveler information can significantly improve road network travel time reliability.