基于元胞自动机的突发传染病事件演化模型

Emergency epidemics spread model using cellular automata

运用复杂系统元胞自动机原理和多Agent理论,研究突发传染病事件的演化机理.通过对突发传染病事件特征分析,建立其传递演化模型,并对甲型H1N1事件进行了模拟仿真.结果袁叽突发传染病事件的内在原因是内部能量的积聚,演化过程是由内部个体相互之间发生传递作用使得能量不断积聚到突然大规模释放的过程.内部的传递效率、潜伏期以及基因长度都对演化产生较大影响,如果能降低这种作用,或采用免疫接种和隔离等手段阻止传递的可能性和缩小传递范围,就能有效地阻止突发事件的发生.

Using cellular automata and multi-Agents of complexity system theory, this paper discusses the evolution mechanism of the emergency epidemics. And through the analysis of the characteristics of the emer- gency, it establishes an emergency transfer evolution model and takes A/H1N1 influenza event for simulation. Research results show that the internal cause of the emergency is the accumulation of internal energy and the evolution is a process from a continuous accumulation of energy to abrupt mass release. Such factors as internal transfer efficiency, latent period and gene length, greatly affect the evolution. Only if these impacts could be reduced, or the possibility of the transmission and scope of transfer could be lessened by isolation and immunization, can the incident be hindered effectively.