10～30d延伸期天气预报研究进展综述

Advances in the Study on 10-30 Days Extended-Range Weather Forecast

开展10～30 d延伸期天气预报对于气象防灾减灾具有重要意义,也是填补短中期天气预报和短期气候预测之间的时间缝隙、构建完备性预报体系的必然要求。本文从延伸期天气预报的预报对象、基本方法和相关原理以及国内外业务实践3方面回顾了延伸期预报的科学进展和业务现状,从数值方法、大气低频信号演变方法和数理统计方法 3个角度比较分析了延伸期预报的各种主流方法,详细探讨了各种方法的优势和不足,在此基础上对目前延伸期预报领域存在的问题进行了梳理和总结。

Developing extended-range weather forecast from 10 to 30 days is very important for preventing and reducing meteorological disasters,which is also necessary to fill the gap between short-to-medium range weather forecast and short-term climate prediction.In this paper,the forecast object,basic methods and related mechanisms,and operational applications at home and abroad about extended-range weather forecast are reviewed.Several methods about extended-range weather forecast are compared and analyzed from three aspects of numerical modeling,development of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation and numerical statistics,and the advantages and disadvantages of all kinds of prediction methods are dicussed in detail.Finally,the scientific problems in the field of extended-range weather forecast are summarized.