世界石油新版图与中东石油

The World Oil's New Order and the Middle Eastern Oil

过去50多年来,世界石油版图的中心一直是中东,中东石油一直是全球能源权力结构的中心。进入21世纪以来,世界石油新版图似乎正在悄然改变,新的世界石油版图的轮廓正在出现,其中心不是中东,而是西半球。有分析认为,世界石油新版图将改写全球政治,中东产油国的实力和重要性将走上下坡路,美国的石油进口来源地越来越远离中东地区,其中东政策或有相应变化。然而,世界上只有一个石油市场,美国等西半球国家能源安全状况得到改善的同时,并不意味着全球能源安全得到了重大改善,美国等西方国家仍然难以豁免中东石油供应中断和油价危机的影响。中东石油地缘政治具有结构性矛盾、长期化和难以解决的特点,将长期影响到中东石油的安全和稳定供应,影响全球包括美国等西方国家经济。就中东石油对全球经济、地缘政治以及美国的能源、经济和安全政策的重大影响而言,中东石油的权力核心地位仍然难以撼动。

For over 5 decades, the Middle East has been acting as the center stage in the world＇ s oil order and constituting the global energy power pattern. With the advent of the 21st century, however, a new order is emerging on the horizon, shifting from the Middle East to the Western Hemisphere. Some analysts assert that the world oil＇ s new order will rewrite the world politics, rendering the oil - produc- ers in the Middle East less powerful and less important. Furthermore, as the US is getting less dependent on the Middle Eastern oil, its Middle East policy will see drastic changes accordingly. Nevertheless, this paper argues that since the world has only one oil market, any improvement in the energy security of the US and other Western Hemispheric countries will not necessarily mean that the global energy secu- rity is automatically improved, nor can the US and other Western countries be im- mune to possible disruptions of oil supply from the Middle East and to world oil price crisis. Rather, the fact that the Middle Eastern oil geopolitics is characterized as structurally contradictory, long - standing and not easy to find a solution will contin- ue to exert an effect on the oil security and stable oil supply in the Middle East, and hence on the economy of the US and other Western countries. Given the important role of the Middle Eastern oil in the global economy and geopolitics as well as in the formulation of America＇ s energy, economy and security strategies, the author con- cludes that the power status of the Middle Eastern oil is hard to be shaken for quite some time to come.