国内油价对我国通货膨胀影响的路径分析

A Path Analysis of the Effects of Domestic Oil Prices on Inflation in China

近几年油价的高位波动已成为影响我国通货膨胀的重要因素。在深入分析国内油价对通货膨胀的传导机理的基础上,对各种传导路径假设进行Johansen协整和Granger因果检验。结果显示,我国油价主要通过农业、制造业、交通物流三大渠道影响物价水平。稳定国内油价的相应政策建议是:优化石油价格预警体系,健全强化石油安全预警管理,改进成品油价格机制表述、调价周期等,以更好地反映企业生产成本、市场供求状况以及资源稀缺程度。

The high volatility of the oil price has become an important factor affecting inflation in China in the re- cent years. Analyzing the conduction mechanism of the domestic oil price on inflation thoroughly, this paper per- forms the Johansen cointegration and Granger causality test on all shows that China＇s oil prices affect the price level mainly through assumptions of conduction path. The result the ways of agriculture, manufacturing and transportation and logistics. Finally, the corresponding policy recommendations of stabilizing the domestic oil prices are presented, which involve optimizing the warning system of oil prices, perfecting and strengthening the warning management of oil safety, improving the pricing mechanism and price adjustment period of refined oil products and so on, so as to better reflect the enterprise cost of production, the market supply and demand, and the degree of resource deficiency.