基于Delphi法的MSM人群艾滋病感染风险指标体系

Delphi based infections risk index system of AIDS among MSM

目的初步确立男男性行为(Men who have sex with men,MSM)人群艾滋病感染的风险指标体系,为筛选高风险亚人群和制定有针对性的防制措施提供参考依据。方法采用Delphi法,邀请19位相关专家进行两轮专家咨询,确定MSM人群艾滋病感染的风险指标体系及其权重。结果两轮咨询专家积极系数分别为94.7%(18/19)、100%(16/16);专家的权威系数为0.873～0.948。第一轮咨询所有指标的重要性和可测量性协调系数分别为0.374、0.328,第二轮咨询分别为0.393、0.345,均具有统计学意义(P<0.001),表明专家意见趋于一致,可靠性较高。最终确立MSM人群艾滋病感染的风险指标体系,包括一级指标6项,二级指标36项。结论运用Del-phi法初步构建的MSM艾滋病感染风险指标体系较为全面、可靠,可用于实证研究以进一步检验与完善。

Objective To establish an infection risk index system of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome （HIV/AIDS） among men who have sex with men （MSM）, so as to provide a basis for high risk population screening and the development of targeted control and prevention measures. Methods Nine- teen experts were invited to apply Delphi method to establish the infection risk index system of HIV/AIDS among MSM through two rounds of investigation. Results The positivity coefficients of the two-round expertise consuha tion were 94.7%（18/19） and 100% （16/16）, The authority coefficients were 0. 873-0. 948. Kendall＇s coefficients for the importance and measurability of indicators were 0. 374 and 0. 328 respectively for the first round, 0. 393 and 0. 345 respectively for the second round, the statistic was significant （P〈0. 001）. It indicated coordina tion among experts and had high reliability. The infection risk index system of HIV/AIDS among MSM was determined to be composed of six first-level items and 36 second-level items. Conclusion The infection risk index system of HIV/AIDS among MSM based on Delphi method is comprehensive and reliable and should be further tested and improved in practice.