FLIGHT CONFLICT FO RECASTING BASED ON CHAOTIC TIME SERIES

基于混沌时间序列的飞行冲突预测(英文)

In order to grasp the evolution of flight conflict amount accurately and to forecast the amount, chaos in flight conflicts is studied. Firstly, a fault tree of flight conflicts is established based on the man-machine-environ- ment system engineering theory. The chaotic characteristics of flight conflict are analyzed from the qualitative point of view. Secondly, an improved chaotic algorithm for the largest Lyapunov exponent is proposed based on the small-data method and the wavelet de-noising theory. Chaos in flight conflict time series is identified by the improved chaotic algorithm from the quantitative point of view. Finally, a case study by the chaos forecasting al- gorithm is performed and the results are evaluated by the gray error checking ： Correlative value of posterior error is 0. 220 9〈0. 35, and micro-error probability is 0. 985 3〉0.95. Such results show the chaos forecasting algo- rithm is effective, thus it is feasible to analyze and forecast flight conflict by chaotic theory.

为了准确掌握飞行冲突量的变化规律及其准确预测,对飞行冲突的混沌问题进行了研究。首先,基于人-机-环境系统工程理论,建立飞行冲突的故障树,从定性的角度分析了飞行冲突的混沌特性;然后,建立了基于小数据量方法和小波去噪理论的最大Lyapunov指数λmax的改进混合算法,并利用此方法从定量的角度证明了飞行冲突时间序列中混沌现象的存在;最后,利用混沌预测方法对模拟数据进行预测,并通过灰色误差检验方法对预测结果进行评价。检验结果为后验差比值为0.2209<0.35,小误差概率为0.9853>0.95。结果表明该预测方法的有效性。因此,说明应用混沌理论进行飞行冲突分析与预测是可行的。