基于AR模型的云南省低碳目标管理研究

Yunnan's Low Carbon Target Management Based on AR Model

发展低碳经济的宗旨是降低单位GDP总量的能源,尤其是化石能源消费量,使得经济的碳强度指标遵循从"量变到质量"逐步下降的自然规律。目标管理的运用需要目标的制订、执行、评价以及预测四个环节的协调。笔者运用AR模型来预测下一年度的低碳目标,通过AR模型确定的2011年的碳强度指标和逐年平均下降法确定的碳强度指标非常接近,说明逐年平均下降法确定的年度指标是可行的、具有挑战性的。通过对比"十一.五"期间实际执行路径和理想执行路径的能源消费量和二氧化碳排放量,表明未按目标管理进行的实际执行路径比理想执行路径多排放了约1244万吨二氧化碳,进一步证明了低碳经济目标管理的重要性。

Developing low carbon economy is to reduce the unit GDP gross energy, especially the fossil en- ergy consumption. The reducing process of carbon intensity must follow the law of ＂changing from quantity to quality＂. The application of target management needs the formulation, execution, evaluation and forecast of the target. The forecast value of 2011 year＇ s low carbon target decided by the AR model is very close to that by the annual average descent method. The annual low carbon goal feasibility and challenges have been proved. The analytical comparison of energy consumption and carbon emissions between the actual execution path and the i- deal one indicates that the actual path has issued more about 12,440,000 tons of carbon dioxide than the ideal one, thus testifying the importance of the target management of the low carbon development.