基于灰色模型的国际能源需求预测

Forecasting of International Energy Demand Based on Gray Model

本文在阐述全球能源需求现状的基础上,采用灰色预测法对全球2012～2015年的石油、天然气、煤炭、核能、水电、可再生能源和总的一次能源的需求量进行了预测,并分析了未来全球能源的需求趋势、需求结构和需求增长速度等方面的特点。据此,提出了我国未来能源开发和利用的建议,包括科学开发勘探能源,提高能源利用效率,加大可再生能源的开发和利用,建立能源战略储备和加强国际合作、减少能源消费量等。

On the basis of the current situation of global energy demand,this paper forecasts the demand of global oil,natural gas,coal,nuclear,hydropower,renewable energy and total energy demand from 2012 to 2015 by using Gray Model.And it analyzes the energy demand trend,energy demand structure and energy demand growth speed in the future.Accordingly,this paper gives some recommendations of China＇s future energy development and utilization,including develop and exploit energy scientifically,improve energy efficiency,increase the development and utilization of renewable energy,establish energy strategy reserve and strengthen international cooperation to reduce energy consumption.