“刘易斯拐点”、开放经济与中国二元经济转型

Lewisian Turning Point,Open Economy and Transition of Dual Economic Structure in China

"民工荒"和工资上涨现象引起较多关于"刘易斯拐点"的争议。本文从开放经济与二元经济关系的视角出发,指出中国的二元经济转型是城镇化、工业化和经济开放过程的并存。同时,中国的刘易斯拐点仍未到来,工资差距仍在行业和地区间存在,并吸引剩余劳动力向东部地区的劳动密集型制造业和服务业转移。而外部冲击、城镇化和工业化不匹配等现象的存在,是造成剩余劳动力与"民工荒"现象并存的主要原因。基于284个地级市宏观层面数据的实证分析支持上述结论。

Reports of migrant labour scarcity and rising migrant wages result in an academic debate on whether the Lewisian tuming point has arrived in China. This paper investigates into the labour scarcity from the approach of open economics, and argues the coexistence of transition of dual economy, globalization and urbanization in China. Moreover, the Lewsian turning point has not arrived with lots of migrants transferring into tile export- oriented manufacturing in eastern cities due to relative wage difference. But under the back- ground of the external shock and the mismatch between urbanization and industrialization, both labour surplus and labour scarcity are likely to coexist. The empirical results based on macro-data of 284 cities in China support above arguments.