摘要
On the basis of a simple model identifying the relationship between the agricultural labor share in total labor force and the determining factors,such as number of new participators to,and those leaving from agriculture and transferring to non-farming,this paper estimates the contribution of the determining factors for the changes of agricultural labor share during the period 1990～2030.Given the assumption about the average annual decline of the agricultural labor share in future,the number of new participates to agricultural labor is estimated to decline from 20.23 million during 2005～2010 to 11.42 million during 2010-2030,and the numbers of leaving and tranferring are estimated to change from 42.20 million and 38.43 million to 27.04 million and 29.49 million respectively during the same period. The factors of entrance,exit and transfer,which contribute to the decline of the agricultural labor share,are described to change from- 15.1%,34.7%and 38.1%respectively in 2005～2010 to-22.6%,54.3% and 49.8%in 2025～2030.The nonfarming job creation may decline from 69.69 million in 2005～2010 to 35.08 million in 2025～2030.The policy implications of the finding are also discussed.
On the basis of a simple model identilking the relationship between the agricultural labor share in total labor force and the determining factors, such as number of new participators to, and those leaving from agriculture and transfen＇ing to non-farming,
