应用灰色模型预测深圳市肺结核发病率

Prediction of tuberculosis in Shenzhen with the GM(1,1) model

目的预测深圳市肺结核的发病率,掌握疫情动态变化,为相关卫生行政部门对肺结核的防治提供科学依据。方法收集深圳市2006-2011年肺结核发病率,建立灰色模型,预测未来2年的肺结核发病率。结果将6年数据建立灰色预测模型,通过SPSS计算结果D=51020.77,a=-0.05563,u=24.88,模型合计误差=-0.02454,预测深圳市2012年肺结核发病率为36.19/10万,2013年肺结核发病率为40.45/10万。动态修正灰色预测模型,计算结果D=6403.98,a=-0.00182,u=32.17,预测模型(0)(t+1)=32.23e-0.00182t+17675(后验差比值C为0.42,小误差概率P为0.89,模型合计误差=-0.00051),预测深圳市2012年肺结核发病率为32.44/10万,2013年肺结核发病率为32.56/10万。结论动态修正灰色预测模型结果与实际值比较接近,模型拟合误差较小,可以用于短期预测。

Objective To predict the incidence rate of tuberculosis in Shenzhen, so as to provide the scientific basis for a reasonable distribution of health resource on tuberculosis prevention and treatment. Methods The incidences rates of tuberculosis in 2006-2011 were collected. The GM（1,1） model was established for the analysis and prediction of the incidence rate of tuberculosis. Results The GM（1,1） model was established and the values of the calculation were D=51 020.77, a=-0.055 63, and u=24.88. According to the Gray Model, the predicted incidence rate of tuberculosis in 2012 is 36.19 per 100,000, and 40.45 per 100 ,000 in 2013. In the dynamic adjust Gray Model , the calculated values are D=6 403.98, a=-0.001 82, and u=32.17, and the model is （0）（t＋1）=32.23e-0.001 82 t＋17 675. The predict result of this model for 2012 is 32.44 per 100 000, and 32.56 per 100 000 in 2013. Conclusion The predicted result is similar to the actual data and the error of the result is small. The adjusted GM （1,1） is appropriate in the short-term prediction of the incidence rate of tuberculosis in Shenzhen.