产业演化中的渐变与突变

On Gradual Change and Mutation in Industry Evolution

在总结前人产业演化研究成果的基础上,对熊彼特(1943)提出的产业突变(Industrial Mutation)一词的内涵进行了界定。产业演化是产业渐变与产业突变的辩证统一。产业突变是产业发展过程中发生的非连续变化。在产业突变的测度方法方面,总结了突变论、结构突变理论、灰色系统理论等定量方法。在产业突变的理论分析方面,企业突变是产业突变的微观基础;产业突变会引发产业升级或产业衰退,最终导致宏观经济增长或衰退。产业突变分析对战略性新兴产业的跨越式发展也具有启发意义。作为一个例子,最后运用结构突变理论分析了我国50个大中城市大豆油价格的突变情况;实证分析表明,国际市场波动导致我国大豆油价格发生突变,并危及我国大豆油产业安全。

On the basis of the study of predecessor on industry evolution,the word ＂industry mutations＂ proposed by Schumpeter（1943）is defined.Industry evolution is the dialectical unity of industry gradual change and industry mutation.Industry mutation is a nonsuccessive change,which happens during the industry development.In the aspects of industry mutation measure methods,Catastrophe Theory,structural break theory,and other quantitative methods are summarized,which can be used to measure the industrial mutations.In the aspects of industry mutation theory analysis,the enterprise mutation is the micro-foundation of industry mutation,industry mutation can cause industrial upgrading or industry recession,which eventually leads to the macro economic growth or decline.Industry mutation analysis also has been instructive for leap-forward development of strategic emerging industries.As an example,soybean oil price mutations in our 50 major cities are studied finally with the use of the of structural breaks theory.The empirical analysis shows that,the international market fluctuation causes our soybean oil price mutations,and may endanger industry safety of our soybean oil.