城市住房用地供应政策对房价干预效果研究——基于上海住房市场的实证分析

The Intervention of Urban Housing Land Supply Policy on the Housing Price ——Based on Empirical Analysis of the Shanghai Housing Market

文章运用时间序列模型、granger因果检验和回归分析方法,分析了上海市住房市场住宅用地供应对房价的干预效果。实证结果表明:上海市2001-2007年住宅用地出让量的持续、快速下降是房价快速上涨的主要原因;增加住宅供地量能显著抑制房价上涨,2009年以来房价上涨速度减缓的主要原因也是住宅用地供应量的大幅回升。住房供地具有一定的滞后性,长期而言,住房供地是政府抑制房价的重要政策手段。鉴于此,提出相关政策建议:在房价快速上涨阶段,为了实现抑制房价的目的,政府应从土地供应量、供应结构和加强土地市场监管三个维度来实现对住房价格的有效干预。

Using the time series model,the Granger causality test and regression analysis,this paper analyzes the interven tion of urban housing land supply policy on the housing price in Shanghai.The results as following,the main reason of rapid rising of Shanghai house price from 2001-2007 is the sustained,rapid drop of residential land supply.Increasing the amount of residential land supply is helpful to curb housing prices.So the main reason of slow rising of Shanghai house piece since 2009 is the sharp rebound in the supply of residential land.In order to curb housing prices increase,we need to increase the amount of residential land supply.With a certain lag,so the residential for land supply is an important policy tool for govern ment to curb prices in the long run.Therefore,in order to achieve the goal of curbing prices,government should strengthen intervention in housing prices land the three perspectives of land supply,the supply structure and strict land market regulation in the period of rapid price rise.