我国通货膨胀率动态波动路径研究——基于LSTR2模型的实证分析

Research on the Dynamic Path of China’s Inflation Rate ——Empirical Analysis based on LSTR2 Model

文章应用非线性的LSTR2模型对我国通货膨胀率非线性以及动态波动路径进行研究,结果表明:我国通货膨胀率呈现出显著的非线性特征,且经常在三区制间快速转移,并具有持续可扩散的传导效应,相应地,我国通货膨胀可以划分为三转移区制。通货膨胀率的转移速度较快和我国大多处于低通胀状态,也在很大程度上证明了我国货币政策的灵敏性、有效性和稳健性。

By applying nonlinear LSTR2 model,the paper makes an empirical study on the characteristics and the dynamic path of China’s inflation rate,the result shows that,China’s inflation rate is able to reflect the outstanding nonlinear char acteristics,it switches quickly between the three different regimes with obvious sustain spreading effect,and corresponding ly,China’s inflation regime-switching can be divided into three regimes.In the case that so quickly China’s inflation rate switches and used to be low,China’s monetary policy has been proved sensitive,effective and prudent to a large extent.