林窗模型BKPF模拟红松针阔叶混交林群落对气候变化的潜在反应

SIMULATION OF THE POTENTIAL RESPONSES OF MIXED CONIFEROUS AND BROAD-LEAVED KOREAN PINE COMMUNITIES BY BKPF MODEL

用森林动态模型 BKPF研究典型红松针阔叶混交林群落在气候变化和 CO2 倍增后的反应得出 ,在气候变化 5 0 a后现存的天然红松林林木总株数将减少 2 0 %以上 ;地上部分生物量将减少 90 %以上 ,蒙古栎的生物量占据林分的 5 7%以上 ;林分生产力与现在气候条件下比较接近 ,略高 4% ,但主要以蒙古栎、山杨、白桦为主 ;林分叶面积指数大幅度减少。

In a simulation model the stand density of mixed coniferous/broad leaved Korean pine forest was modeled to become reduced by more than 20% after 50 years of global climate change (GFDL) and doubled CO 2 concentration. The stand would come to be dominated by Quercus mongolica, Populus davidiana and Betula platyphylla, and its aboveground biomass would be reduced by more than 90%. Quercus mongolica was predicted to come to contribute about 57% of the total stand biomass. The stand productivity was predicted to increase by 4% over no climatic change, though this would be composed mainly of Quercus mongolica, Populus davidiana and Betula platyphylla. The total leaf area index (LAI) of the stand also decreased dramatically under the model.