市场的定义与1933年GDP测算

The Definition of Market and An Estimation of 1933’s GDP

以长距离贩运的商品量来测算近代中国市场规模的方法是有缺陷的,近代中国城市经济的发展,各种要素在城市的集聚,以及大城市内部各种商品和劳务的交易,是近代中国经济和市场发育的主要途径,如果忽略了城市的就地贸易,就会低估市场规模。在得到了1933年市场规模的数字以后,经调整,可以估算出1933年的GDP数字,并由此粗略地推算出1931-1936年的GDP数字。可以发现,与以前学界所估算出来的相应GDP数字比较,该数字小了不少,这是因为根据GDP的固有定义,扣除了未进入市场的商品和劳务的量所致。

The method of estimating the market scale of modem China by measuring commodity quantity of long distance transporting is defective. In modern China, the development of urban economy, the centralizing of essential factors in big cities, and urban internal business was main way of modern China＇ s economic development and market growth. If we neglect the urban internal[ market, we will underestimate the market scale. After we get the number of 1933＇ s market scale, we can estimate 1933＇ s GDP, and on this base estimate 1931 - 1936 GDP numbers. We can find out that these numbers are smaller than the numbers in previous researches, because according to the definition of GDP, GDP numbers don＇ t include some part of producing numbers that didn＇t enter the market.