“第三次工业革命”与中国经济发展战略调整——技术经济范式转变的视角

“The Third Industrial Revolution” and the Adjustment of China’s Economic Strategy——Transformation of the Techno-Economic Paradigm

以智能化、数字化、信息化技术的发展为基础，以现代基础制造技术对大规模流水线和柔性制造系统的改造为主要内容．以基于可重构生产系统的个性化制造和快速市场反应为特点的“第三次工业革命”．是一场嵌入在技术、管理和制度系统中的技术经济范式的深刻变革。随着这场工业革命的不断深化．制造和制造业的经济功能可能被重新定义．国家和企业竞争力所依赖的资源基础和要素结构、从而全球产业竞争格局可能被重构，过去刻画价值链经济特征的“微笑曲线”可能变成“沉默曲线”、甚至“悲伤曲线”，传统“雁阵理论”所预言的后发国家产业赶超路径可能被封堵．不利于发展中国家的“中心～外围”世界分工体系可能被进一步固化．国家间产业竞争范武将由企业间竞争和供应链间竞争转向产业生态系统间的竞争．系统的适应性和动态能力成为一国获得产业长期竞争力的关键。为了迎接“第三次工业革命”以及未来与发达工业国家在价值链各环节的“全面竞争”的挑战，未来中国需要在转型升级战略、全球竞争战略、技术创新战略、产业发展战略、国家信息战略等多方面进行适时调整。

The technological maturation and cost reducing of the fundamental manufacturing technologies, together with the institutional rearrangement and policy adjustment by major industrialized economies in the post- crisis era, are arousing the ＂third industrial revolution＂ （T1R）, which is featured with emerging personalized manufacturing and restructured mass-production and flexible production. With the tar fetching shift in techno- economic paradigms, TIR will lead to the re-deflnition of the manufacturing＇s economic function, re-interpretation of the industrial competitiveness, and the rebuilding of the resource base. With the increasing profitability of manuthcturiug, the ＂smiling curve＂ may be changed to the ＂silent curve＂, or even the ＂sorrow curve＂. The later- comers＂ path of industrial catch-up, as predicted by the classical ＂flying-geese＂ model, could be cut off, and the ＂center-periphery＂ scheme of global division of labor would be strengthened. Meanwhile, inter-nation industrial competition paradigm would shift from inter-firm and supply-chain competition to the competition between industrial ecological systems, whose adaptability and dynamic capability would be crucial for a country to gain long-term competitiveness. For the preparation of the TIR and overwhelming competition with advanced industrialized countries at each part of the value-chain in the future, China＇s industrial development strategy must be re-oriented.