对外贸易对中国经济增长影响的实证分析——基于1997～2007年中国进口非竞争型投入产出表的分析

Empirical Analysis on the Effects of Foreign Trade on Economic Growth of China——An Analysis Based on 1997-2007 Chinese Import Non—competitive Input-output Tables

运用1997、2002、2007年中国33个部门的进口非竞争型投入产出表，实证分析了对外贸易对中国经济增长的影响。结果表明：出口和进口对中国GDP的形成和增长均发挥了积极作用，两者对GDP形成和增长的贡献程度都比较接近；1997~2007年劳动密集型产业出口对GDP形成的贡献率出现先下降后上升的趋势，资源资本密集型和技术密集型产业以及服务业出口对GDP形成的贡献率则保持了持续上升的态势；资源资本密集型产业进口对GDP形成和GDP增长的贡献始终占据主导地位，且贡献率还在不断提高。

This paper empirically analyzes the effects of foreign trade on economic growth of China based on 1997, 2002 and 2007 Chinese Import Non--competitive Input-output Tables. The main results indicate that both export and import have positive im- pacts on GDP formation and growth and their contribution to GDP formation and growth is much closer;from 1997 to 2007,the contri- bution to GDP formation by export of labor-intensive industries firstly decreased and then increased; resource and capital- intensive industries and technology-intensive industries and services maintain upward trend; the contribution to GDP formation and growth by import of resource- and capital-intensive industries is always dominant, and the contribution rate is still increasing.