地区二氧化碳排放与经济发展——基于脱钩理论和CKC的实证分析

Regional Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Economic Development——An Empirical Analysis Based on Decoupling Theory and CKC

结合Kaya恒等式和IPAT模型，确认了经济发展水平是影响二氧化碳排放的首要因素，并将化石能源细分为17种（考虑了水泥生产），估算了1997-2010年各省的二氧化碳排放指标，分别从省际、东中西部、八大经济区域视角，利用脱钩指数和CKC方法进行了实证研究。结果表明：中国地区经济发展与C02排放并未实现脱钩；对于人均CO2排放量，大部分地区存在CKC，但基本上都未达到拐点，也就是处于上升阶段；对于CO2排放强度，大部分地区存在u形曲线；CKC在中国的适用性有待于进一步的观察。

This paper confirms that economic development plays a key role in regional carbon dioxide emissions. Using decou- plod index and Carbon Kuznets Curve, the authors make an empirical research on regional economic development and carbon dioxide emissions from the three perspectives of provincial-level, east-central-west, and the eight economic regions. The results indicate Chi- nese regional economic development and carbon dioxide emissions have not realized decoupling; most regions have Carbon Kuznets Curve, which basically did not reach the inflection point i.e. was upswing, towards per capita carbon dioxide emissions; while these regions almost showed U-shaped curve to carbon dioxide emission intensity; applicability of Carbon Kuznets Curve needs further analysis in China.