技术进步、节能减排与低碳经济发展——基于1985～2009年中国28个省际面板数据的实证考察

Technical Progress,Energy Saving and Emission Reduction and Low-Carbon Economic Development in China——Based on Inter-Provincial Panel Data from 28 Provinces from 1985 to 2009

技术进步是中国发展低碳经济的核心和动力。本文在构建省际节能减排矩阵分类模式,分析省际低碳经济发展异质性的基础上,采用连续前沿Malmquist-Luenberger指数方法,测算、分解了中国28个省份基于低碳经济增长的技术进步,并运用面板技术实证分析技术进步对节能减排的影响。研究结果显示:考察期内中国整体上低碳技术进步上升幅度较大,其中,科技进步贡献大于效率变化贡献,且省际间差异较大;由于回弹效应和减排成本的存在,大多数省份的科技进步对节能减排的贡献要小于效率变化的贡献。我国推进节能减排工作应从产业结构、能源结构、技术进步和制度等方面采取综合措施。

On the basis of building inter-provincial energy saving and emission reduction matrix classification model, this paper analyzes the heterogeneity of inter-provincial low-carbon economic development. Then it calculates the technical progress of 28 Chi- nese provinces from 1987 to 2009 by the sequential Malmquist-Luenberger index method, then analyzes how technical progress influ- ence the inter-provincial energy saving and emission reduction. The conclusion reveals that, the technical progress of low-carbon in China is greatly risen up during the review period, the contribution of scientific and technological progress is greater than technical ef- ficiency improvement, and inter-provincial have a big differences. Accordingly, the authors put forward the comprehensive promotion of energy-saving and emission-reducing from the industrial structure, energy structure, technical progress and regime aspects.