基于灰色马尔可夫模型的城市污水量预测

Forecasting of urban wastewater discharge based on Gray-Markov Model

城市污水量是进行排水工程设计的基础数据,灰色系统理论在预测城市污水排放量中有着广泛的应用。基于2001—2009年天津市城市污水排放量数据,建立灰色模型对2010—2015年生活污水排放量和工业废水排放量进行预测;由于工业废水排水量数据波动较大,灰色预测结果不准确,采用马尔可夫模型对灰色预测结果进行修正。结果表明,灰色马尔可夫模型预测准确性高;预计2015年,生活污水排放量为65 120.57万t,工业废水排放量为19 339.39万t;随着时间的推移,天津市生活污水排放量在城市污水排放总量中的百分比越来越大。

The urban wastewater discharge can provide fundamental data for drainage engineering design, the Gray System Theory is widely used to forecast urban wastewater discharge. Based the urban wastewater dis- charge in Tianjin from 2001 to 2009, Gray Model was established to forecast the discharge of domestic sewage and industrial wastewater in Tianjin from 2010 to 2015. As the data of industrial wastewater was characterized as great fluctuation, Markov Model was introduced to amend the results of Gray Model. The results showed that the forecasting results of industrial wastewater by Gray Markov Model had high accuracy. The domestic sewage dis- charged would he 651. 2057 million tons and the industrial wastewater discharged would be 193. 3939 million tons in 2015. It indicated that the percentage of domestic sewage discharge in urban wastewater discharge having an increase trend as time goes on.