基于投入产出法的我国省际物流业发展比较——以物流大省为例

The Comparative Inter-provincial Analysis of Logistics Industry Based on Input-output Method

基于2002年和2007年投入产出表,对河北、广东、山东、江苏、河南、浙江、上海、福建和辽宁9个物流大省的比较分析表明,从产业属性看,我国物流业正进入中间产品型产业;从产业关联效应看,物流业与工业、服务业的产业关联效应显著大于农业、建筑业;从产业波及效应看,物流业的感应度系数和影响力系数普遍小于社会平均水平;从产业驱动力来看,消费对物流业的诱发效应最为显著,物流业对流出最为敏感。尽管同为物流大省,但各自之间也有诸多不同。当前转向以消费驱动为主的经济增长模式有利于物流业的大发展。各地应因地制宜,以主动发展模式推动物流业发展。

With the help of input-output method, the input-output tables of 2002 and 2007, the paper conducts a comparative study on logistics industry of 9 large logistics provinces, such as Hebei, Guangdong, Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Fujian, and Liaoning provinces. The results show that： logistics industry is the intermediate products industry in China; correlative effects between logistics industry and industry and service sector are significantly greater than that between logistics industry and agriculture and construction industry; influential effects of logistics industry are lower than the average level of society： the induced effect of the consumption to the logistics industry is the most significant; logistics industry is the most sensitive to the outflow. At the same time, there are many inter-provincial differences. Every province should adopt targeted measures to oromote the develooment of the logistics industry.