我国城乡居民消费与收入的动态关联性——来自向量自回归模型的验证

An Empirical Study on the Dynamic Relativity of Income and Consumption between China's Urban and Rural Residents

我国城乡居民消费与收入具有同向变化规律,且二者之间存在关联性关系。通过增加实际收入水平,将大部分城镇居民实际收入水平提高或者稳定在中等水平,对消费的拉动作用明显;在实际收入水平居于中等水平时,收入对消费的基本面作用依然较为显著。扩大中等收入水平人群比例或者相对数量,对于促进消费的作用最为显著。因此,要实现扩大内需的目标,增加中等收入水平人群比例是一条切实可行的路径。

The income and consumption between China＇s urban and rural residents has the same direction variation, and there exists dynamic correlation. Improving most urban residents＇ real income or maintaining this income in the middle level by increasing the real income can play an important role in driving consumption. When the real income is in the middle level, the fundamental effect of income on consumption will be more significant. Expanding the proportion or relative quantity of middle- income people can play the most significant role in promoting consumption. So, increasing the proportion of middle-income people is the feasible way for us to boost domestic demand.