中国对俄直接投资与中俄贸易关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between China Direct Investment in Russian and Sino-Russia Trade

选取1992年—2010年的中国对俄出口贸易额和对俄进口贸易额作为被解释变量,中国对俄直接投资存量作为解释变量,运用协整分析方法和误差修正模型,考察中国对俄直接投资对中俄进出口贸易的短期和中长期影响。结果表明:长期来看,中国对俄直接投资与中国对俄出口和进口贸易之间存在互补关系;短期来看,中国对俄直接投资与中国对俄出口贸易是互补关系,与进口贸易是替代关系。同时,分析了变量在长期与短期的格兰杰因果关系。

It is gained from the analysis that there exists tight relationship between Chinese direct investment in Russia and Sino-Russian trade.The exports and imports to Russia from 1992 to 2010 are chosen as dependent variables and China direct investment stock in Russian as independent variables from the viewpoint of trade and investment scale,cointegration analysis and error correction model are used to explore the short-run and medium to long-run effect of China direct investment in Russian on Sino-Russian trade.The results indicate that China direct investment in Russian has complementary relationship on the export and import to Russia in the long term,and has complementary relationship on the export to Russia and substitution relationship on the import in the short term.No matter in long term or short term,there is pronounced two-way Granger causality for China direct investment in Russian on the import.But there is a short-term pronounced two-way Granger causality for China direct investment in Russian on the export.China direct investment in Russian is the Granger causality of the export,but the export is the Granger causality of China direct investment in Russian in long term.